Trail cameras are great tools for deer hunters, but sometimes it’s better to use last season’s trail camera data to make plans for your current hunting season. The author likes to analyze and compile his trail camera data each year to plan future hunts. (Photo by Haynes Shelton)
August 22, 2024
By Steve Sherk
Every year as I go through massive amounts of trail camera data from the prior deer season, I notice similar trends that happen each fall and activity that isn’t consistent from one year to the next. But the more I have observed trail cam data, the more I have become convinced that it can have a major impact on your success for the upcoming season.
EARLY AND LATE SEASONS Two of the best times of year to find a mature buck doing what he did in the past are the early fall and the winter months. These are two periods where bucks can be extremely predictable based on past trail camera intel.
At the end of hunting season, I take notes on specific buck movements observed through cameras from September to Oct. 15, as well as Nov. 20 through winter. These timeframes seem to show the most consistencies in behavior and travel patterns each year.
Although I keep tabs on night activity, I’m mostly focused on daytime intel or photos within two hours of sunrise and sunset. I’ve found that these are the times of year when mature bucks move the least during daylight hours. The movement can be so minimal that I may often only get a few daytime pictures of a mature buck due to lack of travel. However, just a few trail cam encounters are all you need to be steered in the right direction when predicting a buck’s future movements.
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I’m logging bucks’ direction of travel, hunting pressure, weather conditions, date and time; as well as what food, water and bedding cover are available in the area. The biggest reason why bucks change their core areas and patterns from one year to the next is usually based on changes in habitat or hunting pressure. If their territory stays the same, then they usually show the same tendencies each year during the early fall and winter.
The author hunted this big, mature 12-point on public land for three years. Although he didn’t end up killing the buck, his trail camera data allowed him to stay on the deer and showed him at what point in the season the buck was most killable. (Photo courtesy of Steve Sherk) I hunted a massive, chocolate-antlered 12-point three years in a row that was extremely predictable in both early and late seasons. The biggest key to staying on him was journaling his movements through trail camera data and the habitat in his home range staying the same. The buck was very patternable, especially from Oct. 1-15.
The second year I hunted him, I missed him on Oct. 13 as he exited his bedding area. The most consistent pattern for that buck each season was his bedding pattern. He bedded in the same clear-cut all three years until another hunter shot him during the rut. Furthermore, he had a small portion of the cut that he mainly used. That’s something I recognized after studying photos in the off-season from trail cameras I had placed on entry and exit trails around the perimeter of the cut. That intel is what led me to a shot opportunity the upcoming season.
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Being a public-land hunter, I’ve learned that the main reason why bucks become so patternable during the late season is due to gun hunting pressure. In most places, food sources are what hunters focus on during the late season, but pressured bucks tend to focus more on security cover and do the bulk of their feeding at night.
What I’ve learned over the years is to pay attention to where I’m getting bucks on camera once gun season starts. Once a buck finds a way to survive the orange army, he will likely use that same area the next season. I note all the daytime buck photos I get during the two-week, Pennsylvania gun season. Food and weather do not seem to be major factors to keep records of, unless you have remote, unpressured feeding areas. Cover is king when it comes to locating bucks during gun season.
Back in 2016, I had a client hunting a huge, old 7-point during the second week of gun season. Due to keeping records of past intel, I knew the buck was using a particular clear-cut to escape from hunters each year. This buck was at least 6 1/2 years old, and he had mastered eluding hunters. He would always show up on camera around the middle of the first week of gun season. I ended up setting my client in the buck’s bedroom well before sunrise, and then I put on a mid-day drive to push the buck from his bed to my client. Much easier said than done, but the plan couldn’t have worked any better. My client dropped the buck in his tracks soon after I bumped the buck right to him.
RUT INTEL The rut is the most unpredictable time of the year to pattern bucks, in my opinion. But my intel over the years has told me that most bucks have rut areas, and they tend to stay within their boundaries for most of the rut. However, a rut range is not often measured in acres but square miles.
By noting rut intel of individual bucks, I’ve still been able to notice trends that bucks partake in every year. I pay most attention to prime weather movements and certain weeks that bucks tend to move through their rut zones. I’ve found that during cold fronts or cold days in general, most bucks tend to cover massive amounts of their rut range unless they locate a hot doe.
My data has shown me that during the last week of October and first week of November, coupled with ideal conditions, you can find bucks working the same scrapes and moving through the same travel corridors each year. My records indicate that anytime you have low temps near or below freezing, bucks will take advantage of the chilled air and make their biggest moves within their rut range. The more ground a buck is covering in search of a hot doe, the more likely you can get in his path. This is why journaling weather in correlation with trail cam data is so effective.
The author shot this mature buck based on the deer’s annual pattern observed through trail camera data. The buck would show up during the last week of October to work a scrape each year, so the author used this information to arrow the buck on Oct. 28, 2020. (Photo courtesy of Steve Sherk) Cool afternoons trigger movement, too. Anytime you have temperatures below 50 degrees in the afternoon, you will likely see an increase in movement. Back in 2020, I harvested a big, mature 9-point after two years of history with him. Once again, noting intel paid off. Each year, around the last week of October, the buck would show up working the same scrape on the edge of a doe bedding area when the conditions were right. If there’s a good reason for that deer to return, he often will. In my case, I had the does to my advantage and it was only a matter of time until he would be checking on them. Just as I expected, I shot the buck near that scrape on a 40 degree afternoon on Oct. 28.
I also keep tabs on doe activity each rut. The more you learn about the does in your hunting areas, the better you will be at staying on bucks. My trail cam data has shown me that food sources play the most vital role in patterning does. They follow the food and they usually bed fairly close to it.
In 2021, we had no acorns at all. Hunting acorns has always been a go-to strategy for hunting during the rut as well as guiding. To say the least, I was thrown a nasty curveball that season, and it took a while to figure things out. The entire rut had changed because of changes in doe activity. This is where intel from the previous rut was worthless for that hunting season.
However, 2022 was also another season of no acorn mast. And a lot of my trail cam intel from 2021 would be more conducive and useful in 2022, which it was. In fact, I shot my 2021 and 2022 Pennsylvania bucks on the same ridge during cold front days on Nov. 6 and Nov. 12. The biggest key to this area being consistent was that it had produced a moderate crop of beechnuts two years in row.
When food sources stay the same from one season to the next, that’s when you can really bank on trail camera intel from the previous rut. Coupling that with the right weather, buck movement can almost be like clockwork during late October and early November.
MY TRAIL CAM PROGRAM Anyone who knows me knows I’m a trail cam fanatic. I run 150-plus trail cams on public land in the mountains of Northern Pennsylvania. The amount of quality intel I get on that many trail cams is astonishing.
My best success has been clustering trail cameras in key areas. For instance, if I’m scouting a new bedding area in the off-season and I find good buck sign around it, I’ll usually hang multiple cameras in the area. You have to remember that mature bucks rarely take the same routes every day. There are times of the year when they hold tighter to smaller areas, but you can’t get enough quality intel from your cameras unless you are clustering them in key spots.
The author runs over 150 trail cameras on public land in Pennsylvania. He believes that compiling his trail camera data and studying it annually is a great way to predict buck movement and patterns. (Photo by Steve Sherk) I’ve placed as many as 20 trail cameras within 10 acres to gather intel on individual bucks for the next hunting season. I’m often letting those cameras soak without really checking them until after deer season. Then, that intel will be greatly used the next fall to target an individual buck and sometimes several.
For next year’s success, it’s very important to be diverse with your trail camera sets. In the mountains, I scatter cameras on different elevations, different facing hillsides and a variety of habitats. This will broaden the spectrum of intel you get, and it will make it much more useful in the future.
There are so many different factors that can have an impact on deer movement, so you have to be versatile with your camera sets. This past season we had a lot of warm weather and drought conditions. Most of our best rut intel for individual bucks was in cool creek bottoms. If we see the same conditions next fall, we will plan our hunts based on the data we collected from this previous season.
I also believe in running my best cameras in my best spots. I use Exodus trail cameras, because I need the utmost reliability in targeting the biggest bucks I know. Losing a season of trail cam intel on a giant buck you have your heart set on is heartbreaking. It will make your hunt much harder for that deer the next fall. So, spend the money on a high-quality trail camera for the deer you have your future set on.
With that being said, I also run a lot of cheaper cameras in areas that don’t excite me as much. My trail cam program is a lot like gambling. I place my biggest bets on the biggest deer and smaller bets on deer I’m not as interested in. However, sometimes those smaller bets lead to big deer in the future!
I find it easiest to wait until after hunting season to pull cameras and cards and start gathering the data. I also use the Spartan Forge Deer Prediction App, where I can make journal entries on specific bucks and it helps me predict his movements next fall based on the data it collects from my trail cams.
Most online weather sites have weather history that you can collect from. I mainly use weatherunderground.com. For weather data, I record high and low temperatures each day, as well as wind and precipitation. Those have been the biggest influences I’ve seen in my years of research. Barometric pressure and moon phase are also worth noting.
I’ve been collecting trail cam data for close to seven years now. A lot of my data is handwritten in a notebook and is kept in a very safe and secret place. It doesn’t have to be done fancy, but the more you note, the better it will help you learn individual bucks in your hunting areas as well as buck habits and behavior.
Running this many trail cameras is a hobby in itself. The most excitement for the next hunting season always starts when I begin to collect data during the latter part of winter. I’ve read hundreds of books, spent thousands of hours in the field and paid close attention to some of the best whitetail hunters in the world; but there is nothing that has made me learn mature bucks and whitetails any better than journaling data from my own trail cameras.